Pete Kendall's Socio Times: A Socionomic Commentary

May 6, 2007
Reasons Why NASCAR is Running Flat
As NASCAR's traveling troupe stops in Richmond for the 10th of 36 points races this season, it's carrying heavy baggage it would like to shed. Despite the early-season optimism and close finishes in races, there hasn't been much to brag about. Several factors have the sport running flat:

1. Two-time Nextel Cup champ Tony Stewart says races are rigged: Stewart dropped a bomb last week by questioning NASCAR's "debris on the track" cautions, saying the real motive was to bunch the field at the end and spice up the races. He compared NASCAR racing to pro wrestling. After a scolding by NASCAR at Talladega, Stewart recanted.

2. By throwing beer cans at Talladega, rowdy fans make the sport look tired: Alabama fans gave NASCAR backers everywhere a black eye when they pelted Jeff Gordon's car with beer cans after he surpassed the late Dale Earnhardt on the career victory list.

3. The slide started at Daytona ... with cheating: Instead of momentum-building hype during NASCAR's Super Bowl, the headlines were dominated by teams that cheated during qualifying.

4. Chevy teams have debunked the "level playing field" talking point: It's not even close. Chevy drivers hold seven of the top 10 spots in the standings.
Cox News Service

May 2007
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Bear Market Revs Up With Rigged, One-Sided NASCAR
Category: NEWS
By: Pete Kendall, May 8, 2007
NASCAR boomed in the bull market and “so did drivers’ earnings.”  Now, however, NASCAR ratings are clearly diverging from the uptrend, which suggests that there may be a larger significance behind Tony Stewart’s 280-pound bear trophy [shown below].
Socio Times, October 31, 2006

stewartWe thought something might be up, er down, for the sport when this giant bear was awarded to the winner of last October’s race here in Atlanta. A far more important signal was the drop in NASCAR’s TV ratings. Last fall, the most frequently cited reason for the dip was that NBC was leaving the sport and had stopped promoting NASCAR in anticipation of its departure. But now NBC is long gone and ratings continue to tumble. We’ll stick with the socionomic explanation that associates an emerging disinterest in car racing with an emerging bear market. Thus the slide in ticket sales and ratings. The April issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist also noted that the both publicly traded NASCAR companies, International Speedway Corporation of America (ISCA) and Speedway Motorsports (TRK), have failed to confirm the new high in the major averages. This has lasted for more than 18 months even though they report record annual revenue in 2006.

sputter cars

As the chart shows, both stocks remain well off their 2000 highs. “Like the major indexes, their prices will soon complete ‘B’-wave bear market rallies,” says the April EWT. The comment from Tony Stewart typifies the negative sentiments that tend to crop up in the early stages of a bear market. As the article notes, however, that Stewart simply expressing “what most race fans have thought for years.” When the time is right, frustrations that get repressed by a rising mood, find their way to the surface, thus the cheating, Chevy dominance and unruly fans. A bad mood finds all kinds of ways to run off fans.


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