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BREAKING NEWS
March 5, 2007
Lenders Cinch Standards
Edward Booker is one of nearly 3 million homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages who've had trouble paying their bills. And, like Booker, many of them won't be able to refinance their loans once the interest rates start rising. At that point, they'll have to tighten their belts, sell their homes or lose them through foreclosure.

He wants to refinance, but he fell behind on payments after his wife died of cancer in 2005, so no lender wants to take the risk.

Since the start of the year, more lenders have been shutting their doors to people such as Booker, just as those homeowners' interest rates are rising. They're slashing the "Bad credit? No problem" types of loan programs, known as subprime, that helped fuel the housing boom. And they're raising the bar for homeowners and first-time buyers to qualify for new loans.

The trend accelerated last week after federal regulators proposed stricter guidelines for banks that make subprime ARMs (adjustable-rate mortgages). The move followed Freddie Mac's decision to drastically raise the criteria for the subprime ARMs it would buy and to require better proof of a borrower's finances.

The industry is reacting to the waves of subprime borrowers who've defaulted on their ARMs. The tighter controls should help prevent future borrowers from getting in over their heads and protect them from predatory lenders. But the sudden shift in lending rules could also threaten the homeownership gains made by families since 2000, weaken the recovery of the housing market and potentially slow the economy.

To stem their losses, lenders nationwide are:

•Reducing loans for 100% of the purchase price.

•Reducing the number of "piggyback" loans, whereby a lender makes one loan for 80% of the purchase price and a second loan for the remaining 20% of the price at a higher interest rate.

•Raising the required credit score.

•Requiring more documentation of a borrower's.

"Some of these companies are yanking away six, eight (loan) products at a time, and the reps are just hanging on the phone with their mouths open, saying, 'What are we going to sell?'" 
USA Today


April 2007
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From Lenders to Barbie Bandits, Mayhem Grabs Hold
Category: NEWS
By: Pete Kendall, March 5, 2007
Somehow the slow, relentless nature of the subprime reversal convinces many that it will stop and reverse, but its durability actually relates to the size of the implosion and its eventual extension across the depth and breadth of the credit universe. Ultimately, the economy will turn down, and AAA credits will follow the collapsing subprime [market].
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, March 2007
 The story of the day is how fast the bear market in social mood is taking control. Across global markets and of the culture at large, previously cited bear market phenomena are asserting themselves. As the quote above and the last 18 months of Socio Times entries indicate, this is a departure from the rate of change over the last several months. Until recently, the deliberate pace of the transition to decline was one of its most prominent aspects. But the article at left illustrates a sudden bear market burst. Late last year, lenders resisted the urge to call in loans and pull in the credit reins. Just last Friday, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, revealed the new willingness, and already USA Today is blasting out word of cinching credit standards on its front page.

The article includes a story, which newspaper readers might as well get used to; they are going to see it over and over again. In this case, the focus is Betty Jean James, a 70-year-old, retired glass inspector living on Social Security. Two years ago, she refinanced her home where she's lived for 25 years. Her payments started at $1,032 but have since climbed – to $1,761. James fell behind two months ago and is facing foreclosure. She says, the mortgage broker "explained to me he could refinance the house, and he did. He didn't explain the interest rate could go up." So, yes, it’s safe to say, the great credit crunch is bearing down like never before.

There are many other signs of a quickening pace, like this update to last week’s entry on Britney Spears:
Britney: "I'm The Antichrist"
Friends of Britney Spears have revealed the singer scrawled the devil's digits, 666, over her bald head and screamed "I'm the Antichrist" in rehab last weekend.

One pal told the News Of The World, "Later that night she tried to kill herself. She attached a sheet to a light and tied it around her neck. Paramedics were called but luckily she was unhurt."

Friends say Britney's apparent suicide attempt was just a cry for help rather than a serious bid to end it all.
SLJ

On the one hand, the behavior might be an excellent career move; bear markets love anti-heroes, and Britney seems to be making a bid for this category. Of course, it can have the unwanted side effect of amplifying the celebrity death spiral covered  last Thursday.

On Friday, we covered a possible bull market -- in gang activity. Here’s the story that turned up in today’s local paper:
White Supremacy Gangs Clout Rising
Public Enemy No.1 is a white supremacist gang that began two decades ago as a group of teenage punk-rock fans from upper middle class communities in Southern California.

According to authorities, this violent gang is dealing in drugs, guns and identity theft and gaining clout across the West. Their clout rose after they forged alliance with the Aryan Brotherhood. As a sign of just how bold Public Enemy has become they have compiled a "hit list", that is targeting five officers and a gang prosecutor.

"They make police officers very, very nervous," said Cpl. Nate Booth, a gang detective with the Buena Park Police Department.
Associated Press

And here’s a piece that concurs with our February 5 write-up, “Super Bowl TV Spots Tap Into a Vein of Anxiety and Fear:”
Commentary: Time for TV Detox
By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE, UPI Editor at Large
WASHINGTON, March 5 (UPI) -- The bilious index is up in America as television commercials resort to mindless anger to sell their wares. A Snickers ad featured two plug-ugly bruisers chomping at either end of a candy bar until their lips touched and kissed accidentally -- and then quickly tearing clumps of hair from their chests to prove their virility.

TV "shockvertising" is now an "edgy" amalgam of someone zapped by a meteorite while waiting to disembark at his office on the moon; real car crashes; passengers side-swiped and tossed around like crash-test dummies; a car that terrorizes and attacks a lovesome pink piggy bank; everybody slaps each other hard in the face; a guy throws a rock at somebody's head; a couple driving at night pick up a hitchhiker carrying a large ax (and some beer), followed later by a second hitchhiker with a chainsaw; a sky diver sans parachute throws himself out of a plane to chase a six-pack of beer.
UPI

The columnist notes that the National Institute of Mental Health says there are now about 16 million suffering from “explosive rage disorder.” Given the numbers, the uptick in crime seems relatively spotty, (see July 17 entry), so far.

But one locally generated story about teenage girl bank robbers indicates (“Police Nab 'Barbie Bank Bandits' Suspects,” CBS News March 2) that this may also be changing fast. The girls parents say they are nice girls, and they don’t know what on earth got into them.  Blame it on the inescapable pull of the most powerful phase of the bear market. 

POSTSCRIPT from Tiane: Comcast has been airing a TV commercial in Atlanta, Georgia, in which co-workers at an office lacking cable-modem hi-speed internet grow increasingly surly.  At the end of the ad, shots are heard as office workers jump out of the way.  I thought this bizarre ad would be pulled, but I've seen it several times since the SuperBowl too.  Note today's news about an office shooting in California -- "Disgruntled Employee Wounds 3 Co-workers, Kills Self at California Printing Company."

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ARTICLE COMMENTS
"USA debt levels secured against home equity loans in July 1997 were US$ 100 billion - this went up to $ 400 billion by December 2004" (Weekend Australian). Australia is following the same path. The current start of the bear market will probably hasten the deflation that is coming.
Posted by: Robin Moseby
March 5, 2007 05:04 PM



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