During the bear cycle culture tends to revisit issues and trends experienced during the wave 4 that preceded its wave 5. Certainly crime dramas (CSI, Law & Order, Bounty Hunter, etc.) have become very popular, as have shows about the "mob" and gangsters (The Sopranos is now airing on regular cable's A&E channel), not to mention "gangsta rap."
During the late 1930's and 1940's the U.S. saw an increase in gangster and "mob" activities, both organized and of the "Bonnie & Clyde" nature. It makes sense that, as wave c unfolds, more crime activities will take place as a way to find companionship and success when people feel shut out of more mainstream avenues of success. We are also seeing more new movies and TV shows focusing on "brothers" and the family, which can spiral in a negative direction (read: "crime families") when people feel under economic pressure and at odds with police and traditional social/governmental authorities. We are already seeing serious gang activities in Mexico, where some drug-related gangs are openly warring with the police.
We may look back on these last several days in February as the days when smart money became The Departed as far as U.S. asset markets are concerned!
--Tiane
There’s nothing like a good gangster film. The heyday was definitely the most deeply bearish decade of the last century, the 1930s. But the premier example remains The Godfather, which won the Oscar for best picture in February 1973, as a countertrend bear market rally of Cycle degree pushed to a new high just over the Cycle III peak. The span between the two highs was seven years. The Departed, which as one website noted, “like The Godfather, is concerned with the theme of family disintegration” has now earned the same honor the same seven years from a Dow high as the Dow, once again, managed a slight new all-time high. So, it is was appropriate that Francis Ford Coppola was among those presenting the best director award to Scorsese. Coppola won best director for The Godfather in 1973. So what goes around comes around and, more often than chance would allow, it does so at exactly the right moment. Another interesting tidbit is that another Scorcese mob movie, Goodfellas, and Coppola’s Godfather 3 were both came out in 1990 and earned Oscar nominees in 1990, another year of a fourth wave countertrend rally high (this one of one smaller Primary degree) in the Value Line Composite. Considering that this is also a Grand Supercycle degree peak, it is probably significant that The Godfather was better and The Departed more violent. |
