Pete Kendall's Socio Times: A Socionomic Commentary

April 1, 2007
Independence Dominates Scottish Election
Scottish political leaders clashed over independence and nuclear weapons on Sunday as a poll showed a pro-independence party on course to become the biggest party in the Scottish parliament in May 3 elections.

Leaders of the four main parties battled it out in a rare 90-minute debate on Scottish television as the campaign for the election, which could have a big impact on the country's constitutional future, moved into a crucial phase.

The Labour Party is alarmed by opinion polls showing the Scottish National Party (SNP) could oust Labour as the largest party in the Scottish parliament.

The SNP is committed, if it wins, to holding a referendum in the next four years on Scottish independence from London.

"I think Scotland should be an equal country along with all the other countries which have political and economic control," SNP leader Alex Salmond said.

A Scottish television poll published on Sunday suggested the SNP would win 51 seats to Labour's 44 in the 129-member Scottish parliament. In the current parliament, the SNP has 25 seats compared with Labour's 50.

April 2007
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The Fight for a Free Vermont? Must be a Big, Big Turn
Category: NEWS
By: Pete Kendall, April 5, 2007
As EWI has noted in the past, bear markets break things apart. This is a simple but important consequence, one that can be highly effective in anticipating important social transformations.
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, April 2006

free scotlandThe probability of Scotland voting for independence from the UK over the next few years is increasing rapidly. I think this is another sign of the "breaking up" aspect of bear markets. The last time Scotland came this close to voting for independence was in 1979.
--Murray Gunn

Exactly right. The bear market that ran through 1979 was only a Cycle-degree experience. This one encompasses two larger degrees, so the potential for a break with England is much greater. Canada’s successionists are also stirring. Or how about Vermont? A Washington Post opinion piece begins:
The winds of secession are blowing in the Green Mountain State. Vermont was once an independent republic, and it can be one again. We think the time to make that happen is now.

Sounds far fetched, but the authors insist there’s a movement afoot. A poll of the University of Vermont's Center for Rural Studies found that 8% of respondents favor peaceful secession, which makes Vermont “foremost among the many states with secessionist movements (including Alaska, California, Hawaii, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Texas).” Secessionists insist that a “350-year swing of history's pendulum toward large, centralized imperial states is once again reversing itself,” and the Wave Principle says they are right. As you say, this is a great example of the fragmenting effects of a bear market, which are covered in the Cultural Trends section of this month’s issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. We’ll cover some more manifestations of the big break-up in future entries.

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The Fight for a Free Vermont? Must be a Big, Big Turn
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