Pete Kendall's Socio Times: A Socionomic Commentary

April 3, 2007
Housing's Fear Factor: Crime May Lower Prices in Some Hub Areas
Home prices are rising in Boston's fancy neighborhoods but falling in less-wealthy ones - and experts fear the Hub's recent murder wave might make the disparity worse.
"I must tell you I'm worried," said Barry Bluestone, dean of Northeastern University's School of Social Science, Urban Affairs and Public Policy. "I do fear the violence has reached a point (where) some are going to say, 'This is where I want to live?' "
First-quarter figures from MLS Property Information Network show big price declines for Dorchester, Mattapan and Roxbury - neighborhoods hard hit by Boston's 16 murders of the year so far.
Average condo prices plunged 29.3 percent in Roxbury and 7.7 percent in Dorchester.  In Mattapan, condo prices rose 20.7 percent, but experts attribute that to the impact of one relatively pricey rehab project. By contrast, Mattapan's average house price fell 8.2 percent.
The declines stand in sharp contrast to price gains in Boston's fanciest neighborhoods.    For instance, average condo prices rose 34.6 percent in Beacon Hill and 1.5 percent in Back Bay.
"It's a classic 'Tale of Two Cities,' " said broker John Ford, who sells real estate in upscale neighborhoods. "We are one Boston, but one area is going up while the other is going down."
Boston Herald

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A Tale of Two Markets: Crime Waxes & Some Homes Wane
Category: NEWS
By: Pete Kendall, April 4, 2007

The longer the countertrend rise in social mood continues, the more closely it comes to resemble the chaotic clash of bull and bear market forces in the late 1960s.
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, April 2006

boston This is as sad from a humanitarian perspective, while fascinating from a socionomic one.  A housing bear market in Boston and the negative social forces of chaos and violence may be creating a negative feedback loop with each trend reinforcing the other.  Perhaps we should be on the lookout for similar stories in other places where the negative social mood is well advanced.
--Deron Kawamoto

Another two-fer. Here we have the unfolding crash in home prices, which was covered here on February 8, merging with the new crime wave, which was first discussed here on July 13. As you say, this is what happens when the effects of a bear market in social mood start to snowball into one another. The allusion to Tale of Two Cities is just right, too, as the classic work begins: “It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.” Dickens’ observation is a perfect representation of the expanding wealth disparity that The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast covered in the December and January issues. It also fits perfectly with the current point in social mood because, as we pointed out with our comments here about IBM yesterday, the current peak marks the end of a countertrend rally in a bear market. It is the best of times because it marks a speculative peak. But like 1968-1969, it does so within an entrenched bear market, one that is on the cusp of a pervasive decline, and thus the worst of times.


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