BREAKING NEWS
December 18, 2006
FBI: Violent Crime Up in 1st Half of '06
Upswing continues trend that began in 2005
Murders, robberies and other violent crimes reported in the United States jumped 3.7 percent in the first half of the year, continuing a troubling upswing that began in 2005, the FBI said Monday.
The FBI said law enforcement agencies reported that robberies soared by a startling 9.7 percent, followed by an increase in murders of 1.4 percent and aggravated assaults of 1.2 percent. Last year, the number of violent crimes increased by 2.5 percent, the largest percentage gain in 15 years. The increase came after years of declines.
The U.S. Justice Department then announced that it would conduct a study of why the crime numbers are increasing, a study that has yet to be completed.
Department officials have cited as possible reasons a surge in gang-related violence, spreading use of the illegal drug methamphetamine and demographics, with children of the baby-boom generation entering the years when individuals are most likely to commit crimes.
No explanation given
The FBI crime report, which comes out every six months, gave the latest statistics, but provided no explanation for the increase. It said reported murders were up 3.1 percent in metropolitan areas, but the largest increase —8.4 percent — occurred in cities with population of between 500,000 and 1 million.
Reuters |
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What's Up With Crime? Socionomics Has Answer
By: Pete Kendall, December 19, 2006 |
Someday, observers will look back at the last days of the great bull market and be perplexed by the behavior of its participants. Perhaps the most glaring contradiction will be how great things were right before the bottom fell out. Crime rates have fallen (this time by a whopping 11%).
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, July 1999 |
 “...the largest percentage gain (of violent crimes) in 15 years. The increase came after years of declines....." I’m going to guess that your social mood has to be really hurting before you have this sort of behavior. Has the Socionomics Institute done any studies with this? Would this be a leading indicator?
--Gene
Crime is a different kind of socionomic phenomenon because it doesn’t track the trend in social mood precisely. Murder and burglary rates, for instance, increased through bull and bear phases in the 1970s and 1980s. But, as the “whopping” plunge reported on in the July 1999 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast attests, one great social side effects of the late 1990s rally in stock prices was a collapse in crime. So, yes, it seems very likely that the persistent crime rate increases of the last two years is another important extra-market harbinger of a downturn in social mood. As Socio Times, reported last summer, the surge focuses on crowded cities, like Phoenix, Minneapolis, Milwaukee and Sao Paulo, Brazil, where swelling anger is finding expression in incidences of violent crime, especially among the young. According to separate news accounts, we can now add Houston and Indianapolis to our list of cities battling soaring crime waves. Experts said the spree reflects a growth in gun crimes, including robberies and homicides, but gave no concrete explanation for the surge. This comment from The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior offers an important clue:
A waxing negative social mood appears to correlate with a collective increase in discord, exclusion, unhappiness, anger, opposition, depression, destructiveness and a desire for power over people.
There is no faster or more destructive way to gain power over others than with a gun.
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