 Today’s issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast divulges the hidden message behind Trump’s Learning Annex appearances and his new book, Why We Want You to Rich. As we note in today’s issue, the nose diving housing market first turned down early this year as a raft of full page ads announcing Trump’s Learning Annex speeches blanketed the country. For our original comments on the ads and the socionomic message behind the magic Trump name, as well as past references in EWFF, see the February 17 Socio Times entry.
Some separate the collapsing housing market from commercial and industrial real estate but Conquer the Crash makes no such distinction. The message is the same for all forms of real estate. Trump’s ability to score a multi-million dollar speaking fee for “20 hours of work” in 2007 does not bode well for the industry’s prospects.
As EWFF has noted before, pride comes before the fall and no one embodies that pride like the Donald. As we explained in early 2004, Trump has a special gift for grabbing the limelight at the end of a major advance in stocks as well as real estate. Historically, his leaps to further heights of fame have been defined by the timing and popularity of his books, like the Art of the Deal, which appeared in 1987. But over the course of the latest peak, it’s expressed itself in myriad ways. In addition to the 72 buildings that will undoubtedly bear the Trump name, there’s The Appentice: Donald Trump, Trump the magazine, and a new feature length cartoon that is reputedly in the works. An October 27 Wall Street Journal article, says Premiere Publishing Group, the firm behind the magazine and cartoon, is also arranging the production of ‘Trump Wine,’” but Trump told the Journal, "I haven't done a wine deal, nor would I do one with” Premiere. He added that he has little to do with Premiere and that he hardly knows its principals. So The Donald must be approaching his saturation point as even Trump is now distancing himself from Trump. By the time he gives his last million dollar speech in 2007, we suspect that interest in real estate, conspicuous wealth and Trump himself will be falling hard.
A STOCK TO WATCH: One socionomic benefit of Trump’s extended run through the mid-2000s is that his name actually carried a firm into the public marketplace. Premiere went public in June. Since it’s primary asset is Trump magazine, it represents an veritable equitization of the Trump name. Like Martha Stewart Omnimedia, which went public a few months before the S&P’s all-time high in early 2000, Premiere (PPBL) fell quickly from its initial offering price of $1. It now trades at 57 cents. If the Trump names is as badly battered by the next bear market as it was by that of the early 1990s, and we suspect it will, it should show up in PPBL. |
