Pete Kendall's Socio Times: A Socionomic Commentary

Rock Star Greeting for Iran Leader's Nuclear Defiance
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received a rock-star reception yesterday from students at Indonesia's national university. They lapped up his message of defiance in the face of American threats to halt Iran's nuclear program.

Clasping his hands above his head, Mr Ahmadinejad played to the crowd, but his words reached out to a broader audience across the Muslim world. The adulation from students in a moderate Muslim nation suggests he is winning Islamic hearts, positioning the nuclear stand-off as a symbol of the need to confront what is regarded as Western oppression.
The Sydney Morning Herald, May 12, 2006

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Winning Friends and Influence In a Major Decline
Category: MIDEAST
By: Pete Kendall, May 12, 2006

A falling mood leads to social expression of resistance, recrimination and intolerance.
The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior

Reading Ahmandinejad’s “intense and rambling” letter to the U.S. president, one might wonder how he got to be president. The answer is that Ahmandinejad is skilled at the politics of a bear market. Consider the following negative mood traits, which are listed as common bear market attributes in The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior:
Desiring power over people
Self deprivation

Go back and examine Ahmandinejad’s public statements over the last few months and you will see that his pronouncements, which range from advocating the destruction of Israel to threatening to “ravage U.S. global interests,” are crafted to appeal to all of these characteristics. The U.S. is a great target for Ahmandinejad because, after 200 years of rising trend, it is a representation of the opposite side of each of these characteristics. HSB lists the countervaling bullish sides of the traits listed above as :

Desiring of power over nature
Self providence

Consider the following comment from his recent letter to Bush: “Liberalism and Western style democracy have not been able to help realize the ideals of humanity. Today these two concepts have failed. Those with insight can already hear the sounds of the shattering and fall of the ideology and thoughts of the liberal democratic systems." This from a man who is himself an elected leader. As HSB explains (see Additional References for the chart and full discussion) liberal democracy is a bull market result: “As social mood becomes more positive, more territory moves from dictatorship to representative government.” The reason Ahmandinejad is getting the “rock star” treatment in Indonesia is that he is so willing to push the bear market buttons of an agitated populace. These bear market impulses are growing strong, not just in Iran but all over the world.

Another bear market attribute is Ahmandinejad's "spiritual" approach to politics. HSB notes, "A falling mood brings religious animosity." Not since Ayatollah Khomeini confronted the U.S. at the end of the last major bear market in 1980, has a foreign leader engendered so much fervent hostility toward the U.S. According to multiple reports, Ahmadinejad believes, "The ultimate promise of all Divine religions will be fulfilled with the emergence of a perfect human being, the 12th Imam, who is heir to all prophets.”  The Imam's return will be preceded “by cosmic chaos, war, bloodshed and pestilence. After this cataclysmic confrontation between the forces of good and evil, the Mahdi will lead the world to an era of universal peace.” And people say EWI is bearish.

Additional References
Political Freedom as a Function of Worldwide Social Mood

lib democracies and the dow

The figure is a graph of worldwide political freedom over the past 200 years plotted against U.S. stock prices. Note the general parallelism. This relationship suggests that advancing waves tend to lead to political freedom, while retrenchments tend to lead to political repression. As social mood becomes more positive, more territory moves from dictatorship to representative government. As social mood becomes more negative, more territory falls to dictators. For example, communists took over Russia at the social mood low of 1917. Fascists took over Germany at the social mood low of 1933. Russia took over Eastern Europe over the course of the 1946-1949 bear market, which ended the 20-year-long Supercycle wave IV corrective pattern in constant-dollar terms (see Figure 16-6). Mao took over China right at the end of wave e of the pattern, in 1949. Pol Pot took over Cambodia in 1975, immediately after the low of Cycle wave IV. In contrast, the Communists voluntarily relinquished power over Russia and Eastern Europe at the social mood high of 1989.
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