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Revolutions don’t always come out the way they are supposed to. The author is right to suggest that there may be a larger meaning behind the deaths of so many Mideast leaders. It is a symptom of an emerging new era. But why, after admitting to not fully understanding the historical moment, is he so willing to commit the Western world to a full court press for change? The error stems from a misunderstanding of the Chinese approach, which would most likely align itself against any entanglement in a “transition from a relatively stable world.”

Jung’s view of the ancient Chinese way of thinking is described in Man and His Symbols: “As soon as we notice that certain types of event ‘like’ to cluster together at certain times, we begin to understand the attitude of the Chinese, whose theories of medicine, philosophy, and even building are based on a ‘science’ of meaningful coincidences. The classical Chinese texts did not ask what causes what, but rather what ‘likes’ to occur with what.” Over the years, Elliott Wave International’s discussions of bull and bear market heroes illustrates in countless past transitions how leadership change “likes to occur” with the change from a bull to a bear market . In 1930, for instance, at the outset of a Supercycle degree bear market, the Republicans initially retained full possession of the Congress, but then lost it when so many members died between Election Day and the first legislative session. A similar leadership wave appears to be sweeping through the Mideast now. The cause of each individual death may be varied, but to the Chinese and the socionomists, it's the  “cluster” that matters. It fits right in with a new social order. Together, the end of so many reins is a potent symbol of the movement from a large degree bull market to a large degree bear.

So, this not a a moment to be seized, so much as survived. Efforts to fill the void created by the displaced leadership will do more harm than good. Iraq is a perfect example. Essentially it represenets an effort to  forcibly extend the benefits of a great bull market -- when that bull market is all but expired. It must be so because the only time anything so preposterous would be attempted is in the exhaustion phase when the “charged up” “sense of power” that marks the end of a old bull market is strongest.  As EWT discussed back in 1997, episodes of mass psychic inflation never end happily. The effort will lose air at a rapid rate in the next phase of decline.

The reference above to Pope John Paul is an appropriate one. Interestingly, the pope is another recently deceased vanguard of the old bull market. His death in 2005 only reinforces the point; this is probably one of those periods when forcing the issue is the course of the “fool beating his head against a stone wall.”