Additional References
The Elliott Wave Theorist, October 2004
Torture Themes and the Complexity of Social Experience
As dedicated as a socionomist might be, he can’t predict everything relating to social behavior. Back in 2000, I discreetly mentioned in an interview for Prechter’s Perspective the forecast that entertainment during the bear market would feature torture themes. It was an uncomfortable thing to say, but the signs were there. The prediction derived from the observation that the social characteristics of fourth waves foreshadow more severe manifestations in the next bear market of larger degree. For example, at the wave IV low in 1921, Nosferatu presaged a series of vampire films in the larger bear market of the 1930s. Likewise, at the wave 4 low in 1962, Psycho presaged a series of slasher films near the end of the larger bear market of the 1970s and early 1980s in constant-dollar terms. A caption in a book on movies said that slasher films had broken, “The Final Taboo.” There is no such thing, as bear markets must continue to shock people with new horrors.
The appearance of the book American Psycho in 1991 (and to a lesser extent the film Misery in 1990) during Primary wave 4 signaled that a major theme of the next bear market would be torture. (In September 2000, as the bear market began, a mild movie version of American Psycho was released.) I said that this theme would show up in the movies, which it has. But as specific as this expectation was, I was unprepared for many nuances of its manifestation. For example:
(1) Who would have guessed that torture scenes would appear first not in films but on a prime time TV show? The 2002-2003 season of 24 opened with a graphic scene of torture (administered by the good guys, no less) and featured half a dozen incidents thereafter. The hero died from torture (and was then revived with electric shocks).
(2) Who would have guessed that the most graphic mainstream torture film of all time would be promoted from the pulpit and prompt conservative, religious Americans to bring their children to the film as a family outing? Yet that is what attended The Passion of the Christ.
(3) While we would certainly have anticipated incidents of actual torture during a Grand Supercycle bear market, who would have guessed that U.S. government personnel would have perpetrated the first torture scandal? Who would have guessed that memos from administration officials could be read as condoning it?
Socionomists can predict what we call the “tenor”and “character” of social events but not often the specifics, which depend upon individual motivation and circumstances.
EWFF, March 2004
In spite of its religious theme, The Passion of the Christ is one of the most violent ever made, which is right in line with this prediction from the October issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist: “Films will break new ground in horror, probably with themes that include torture.” The Passion says one reviewer “is graphic beyond belief, and unrelenting. Basically, the entire second half of the film is spent watching Jesus endure physical torture never before seen in a movie.” Many other write-ups referred to the treatment of Jesus as torture.
The Elliott Wave Theorist, November 2003
Horror movies have increased both in number and in popularity. Torture has been depicted at least half a dozen times on prime time television. … Films will break new ground in horror, probably with themes that include torture.
EWFF, March 2002
The New York Times notes that interest in the attainment of instantaneous wealth has been replaced by a “Nervous Hunger for torture Shows and Gross Out Stunts.” A minute ago, everyone wanted to be a millionaire. In another, everyone will want to beat one. As shown by this note from Investment News, a weekly newspaper for financial advisors, the injuries will be even worse than the insults: with $3 trillion in losses from June 2000 through June 2001, wealthy investors are absorbing the bulk of the damage from falling stock prices. Say hello to the sadistic side of social mood.
The Elliott Wave Theorist, November 1996
Providing background evidence for the subtle cultural slip into bear market mode, the Fox Network relentlessly interrupted the World Series with plugs for its new TV series, Millennium. Between swings of the bat, the network flashed graphic images of death, blood, crashing cars, and dark, disfigured human forms wielding ice picks and preparing torture.
The Elliott Wave Theorist (“Pop Culture and the Stock Market”), August 1985
Horror movies descended upon the American scene in 1930-1933, the years the Dow Jones Industrials collapsed. For ten years thereafter, films featured Frankenstein monsters, vampires, werewolves and undead mummies. The message appeared to be that people had an inhuman, horrible side to them. Just to prove the vision correct, Hitler was elected in 1933 (an expression of the darkest public mood in decades) and fulfilled it. As the bull market in stocks resumed in the early 1940's, films abandoned dark, foreboding horror in the most sure-fire way: by laughing at it. When Abbott and Costello met Frankenstein, horror had no power. That decade treated moviegoers to a rich and varied fare, from patriotic war films to love themes. The 1950's gave us sci-fi adventures in a celebration of man's abilities; all the while, the bull market in stocks raged on. The early 1960's introduced upbeat, exciting James Bond adventures and musicals. Then a change hit. Just about the time the stock market was peaking, filmmakers became introspective, doubting and cynical. How far the change in cinematic mood had carried didn't become fully clear until 1970, when Night of the Living Dead and The Texas Chainsaw Massacre debuted. Just look at the chart of the Dow and you'll see the crash in mood which inspired those movies. The trend was set for the 1970's, as slice-and-dice horror hit the screen. There also appeared a rash of re-makes of the old Dracula and Frankenstein stories, but as a dominant theme, Frankenstien couldn't cut it; we weren't afraid of him any more. Hollywood had to horrify us to satisfy us, and it did. The bloody slasher-on-the-loose movies were shocking versions of the'30's monster shows, while the equally gory zombie films had a modern twist. In the 1930's, Dracula was a fitting allegory for the perceived fear of the day, that the aristrocrat was sucking the blood of the common people. In this age, horror is perpetrated by a group eating people alive, not an individual monster. An army of dead-but-moving flesh-eating zombies devouring every living person in sight was a fitting allegory for the new horror of the day, voracious government and the welfare state, and the pressures that most people felt as a result. The nature of late '70's warfare ultimately reflected the slasher and mass-devouring visions, with torture and genocide prevalent from Cambodia to Afghanistan to Iran.
Five classic horror films were all produced in less than three short years. Frankenstein and Dracula premiered in 1931, in the middle of the great bear market. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde played in 1932, the bear market bottom year, and the only year that a horror film actor was ever granted an Oscar. 'The Mummy and King Kong hit the screen in 1933, on the double bottom. Ironically, Hollywood tried to introduce a new monster in 1935 during a bull market, but Werewolf of London was a flop. When filmmakers tried again in 1941, in the depths of a bear market, The Wolf Man was a smash hit. These are the classic horror films of all time, along with the new breed in the 1970's, and they all sold big. The milder horror styles of bull market years and the extent of their popularity stand in stark contrast. Musicals, adventures, and comedies weave into the pattern as well. |
"Hostel's" big score follows in the bloody footsteps of other big-performing screamers like "Saw II." 