Doha Is Not Dead - Socio Times

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Expectations were low for the just-completed meeting of 149 trade ministers from around the world in Hong Kong. Analysts -- and even some government officials -- cautioned against expecting much coming out of the meeting, the latest in a series of attempts to provide momentum to the Doha Round of international trade negotiations, now at least a year behind the original target for their completion. Expectations were low, and they were met.
Industry Week, Dec. 20, 2005

As Deadline Looms, WTO Talks Are 'Going Backwards'
Salt Lake Tribune -- Dec 17, 2005

These articles update last week's entry on the World Trade trade talks in Hong Kong.

April 2007
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Doha Is Not Dead

Category: TRADE WAR

By: Pete Kendall, December 20, 2005

NOW IT'S TIMES FOR EXPECTATIONS TO DISAPPEAR
At one point, word spread through the World Trade Organization meeting that protestors had managed to penetrate into the inner sanctum of the trade talks. It turned out to be a false alarm, as the turmoil stayed out on the streets. But it may turn out to be trenchant foreshadowing as the ongoing free trade process that is inching ever closer to outright collapse. As the Hong Kong negotiations were heading into their later stages they were reported to be sliding “closer to failure,” but in the final hours, they were allegedly rescued when “developing nations agreed Sunday to end farm export subsidies to help farmers in poor countries get their produce to the global market — by 2013.” But as one report notes, “The agreement, which rescued the gathering from coming up empty-handed after six days of negotiations, was more face-saving than breakthrough.” Reports out of Hong Kong indicate that as the carnival atmosphere outside devolved into open violence and about 1000 arrests, delegates searched frantically for any morsel of common ground. The attitude was “We have to agree on something, anything.” Why? Because a great countertrend bear market rally is ending and, as the old bull market illustrated time and time again, social mood always celebrates the end of a long rise with outward signs of a breakthrough in trade. At this point, however, the larger bear market trend is down; so the gains are more ceremonial than real. The larger reality is the trade relations are slowly crumbling. This was evident in Washington where the agreement was roundly critized. “I can tell you right now that without substantial improvement over the next few months, this framework will go over like a lead balloon. Certain trading partners wanted to get everything and give up nothing,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley, chairman of the U.S. Senate Finance Committee. The likelihood is that the Doha round of trade talks, which must be completed by 2006, will fail. As the December 2005 issue of Foreign Affiars notes, it would “become the first major multilateral trade talks to fail since the 1930s. To prevent a collapse, policymakers in the G-8 and key developing countries must resolve global monetary and current account imbalances, counter the backlash against globalization, and find a way to jolt the talks back to life.” Amidst a continued downtrend in social mood, it will not happen.

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