Pete Kendall's Socio Times: A Socionomic Commentary

November 24, 2007
Australia PM Defeated After Four Terms
Prime Minister John Howard of Australia suffered a comprehensive defeat today, with a coalition led by his Liberal Party losing its majority in parliament.

After four terms in office, he will be replaced by Kevin Rudd, a Labor Party leader and former diplomat. Mr. Rudd, 50, campaigned on a platform of new leadership looking for new answers for new challenges.

The attempts by Mr. Howard’s coalition to stress their economic record failed to impress voters. The Australian economy has had 17 years of continuous growth and he had warned voters that a Labor victory would endanger the country’s future prosperity.

Early estimates had the Labor party gaining some 20 seats, to gain a14-seat majority in the 150-seat lower house. Television prediction seven had John Howard suffering the indignity of losing his own seat in the Sydney suburb of Bennelong in parliament to a former television anchor and rookie politician, Maxine McKew. He would be the first sitting Prime Minister to lose his seat since 1929.
The New York Times

February 2008
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Howard's Fall & Rudd's Rise Take Australia Back to 1929
Category: POLITICS
By: Pete Kendall, December 5, 2007
“Pioneering Studies In Socionomics” showed that incumbent party presidential candidates are more likely to be ousted during bear markets. At such times, voters are more likely to blame the current office-holder for the dour national mood and are more willing to give challenger party candidates a chance.
The Elliott Wave Theorist, April 2007

ruddDoes the recent Australian election result contradict a key Elliot Wave theory? Australians recently changed governments. The dumped administration was one of the longest serving governments in Australian history. It had presided over one of the biggest economic booms, if not the biggest in Australian history, driven largely by China's insatiable appetite for Australia's mineral wealth. All year the ASX has climbed to record highs, including the month immediately before the election. Yet since the beginning of the year newspaper polls had consistently shown that the incumbent government would be dumped come November. All year I had been looking for the ASX index to confirm what the polls had been consistently telling us since January. But as I said, it continued to make record highs, apart from a dip in August which it soon recovered from. So, Australia's social mood has clearly changed, so why hasn't the stock market reflected this?

Actually Rudd’s election conforms quite nicely with EWI’s observation that incumbents tend to get ousted in bear markets. Recall that we have also noted that this effect can be quite immediate at long-term peaks.  In the current case, which is the biggest stock market peak in generations, for instance, the house cleaning actually appears to have started well ahead of time. We noted here in May of last year, that three out of four of Europe’s major political leaders were replaced through the final phase of the current advance. Since then, the fourth transfer of power came in France when Nicholas Sarkozy became France’s new leader earlier this year.

Now it’s Austrailia where John Howard’s loss to Kevin Rudd marks the first time a Prime Minister of Australia has been unseated from his own seat since October 1929. In that year, Liberal Party standard bearer Stanley Bruce (Prime Minister from 1923 to October 1929) lost the election and his electoral seat. “Within a week of the new Prime Minister, James Scullin (Labor) taking over from Stanley Bruce (Liberal), the 1929 stock market crash occurred. Same events, same parties, same supposed issues today and 1929,” says an observant Australian subscriber. “Howard held his district for 33 years, and his four straight national election victories made him one of Australia’s most successful politicians. He lost despite 17 straight years of economic growth. Few in Rudd’s team have any federal government experience. They include a former rock star—one-time Midnight Oil singer Peter Garrett—and a number of former union officials. Rudd’s election as Labor leader 11 months ago marked the start of Howard’s decline in opinion polls.” The bear market political craving is for outsiders.

In the U.S., the president looks more and more like Lyndon Johnson every day. Johnson presided over a similar b-wave rally in social mood, which topped in December 1968. So the parallel to a past peak of similar significance runs deep.

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December 5, 2007
Howard's Fall & Rudd's Rise Take Australia Back to 1929
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Should history repeat then the newly elected government of Australia may suffer the same consequences, running into a severe recession/depression that the newly elected government of 1929 did.
Posted by: Paul Fottrill
December 5, 2007 04:25 PM

Socionomically appropriately, the ousting of John Howard from his seat of 33 years was done by a political newcomer, Maxine McKew. Previously an ABC TV news(political) anchor, Maxine is blonde, wholesome, has a big toothy girlish smile!! Very very different. Nice to observe the outworkings of socionomic prediction.
Posted by: Jan hammond
December 5, 2007 04:25 PM

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