Here again, history is falling in with an important bear market pattern of social change. It’s been a slow descent, but in very striking detail – from the waging of an increasingly unpopular war, to an even more unpopular escalation of that conflict to a gradual loss of political control – Bush is following in Nixon’s footsteps. The parallel is now so clear that images like the ones shown here are appearing in the media. The sharpness of the similarity makes it seem kind of obvious, but as far as we know, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and The Elliott Wave Theorist were the only publications pointing to the likelihood of a Nixon-style reversal of fortune back when Bush was still riding high as Time’s “Person of the Year.”
Subscriber Gene Fina reports that the morning news shows are forecasting “far less clapping” at this evening’s State of the Union speech. The divergence in public mood is even visible within Bush poll numbers as an AOL poll showed that while a majority of Americans still believe Bush is likeable (53%) decisive (58%) and strong but only 44% say he is honest. As the market lines up with the declining belief in Bush’s character, the Bush presidency should unravel altogether. Here’s a fuller presidential analysis from the August 2004 issue of EWT:
Bush’s experience is much like the late-term Johnson and early-term Nixon. Johnson and Bush each dove into a war of aggression that became a mess in which the U.S. became viewed as the “bad guy.” Both presidents spent a record amount of money for “guns and butter.” Nixon declared, “We’re all Keynesians now,” and Bush seems to agree, running record deficits. Bush evokes the polarized public reaction that the early Nixon did.
—The next three presidential terms will coincide with Nixon’s final four years, Ford’s two years, Carter’s four years and Reagan’s first two years. In terms of the Dow/gold ratio, that period through Carter took place during a bear market, which ended when Reagan took office. In terms of the Dow/PPI ratio, the bottom was in 1982, two years into Reagan’s term. Conquer the Crash allowed for various scenarios for the bear market, remarking, “If the decline is a drawn-out affair, more than one successive leader could suffer defeat at its hands.” This decline has so far been drawn out, to put it mildly. The corrective period of wave (a) (which in nominal terms was Cycle wave IV and its ensuing correction, Primary wave 2) dampened or crushed the popularity of three presidents, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. If the current decline of Supercycle degree lasts into 2010-2014, which appears increasingly likely, it should take down at least the presidents who hold office through 2012.
So if you are a politician, you want to get elected in 2012 or 2016, whichever time is closest to the low. To make that decision, you will have to watch the Elliott wave pattern. The timing of the bottom will determine who becomes revered in history as a great President. As the terms of Lincoln and Roosevelt demonstrated, it may also determine which political party emerges triumphant for the ensuing two to four decades.
Keep in mind that despite an overall negative mood from 1970 through 1980(82), strong stock market rallies were (perversely) kind to Nixon in 1972, when he won re-election in a landslide, and to Ford, whose brief term was benign. Though the current major bear market will likely carry through the next eight to 12 years, brief positive periods will probably punctuate the negative public images of the presidents during this time. These presidents will face periods of very low popularity, and at least one may leave office prematurely. One may be seen as crooked, another as dangerous. More surely, at least one of them will be seen as bumbling. The next president may pull troops out of Iraq, as Nixon pulled troops out of Vietnam. |
