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The link shows President Bush's approval ratings versus world events, on a 1-year and 5-year time scale. From the charts, I conclude that his approval rating has absolutely nothing to do with world events, or is responses to them? Strangely, his rating sky-rocketed right after the 9-11 attacks, then returned to the mean. Given the socionomic hypothesis, I wonder if (a) any US President would have had a similar curve, regardless of affiliation/policy and (b) if the social mood had been positive, would that part of the curve be the other way (a large dip, presumably because the President failed to guard against obvious warnings)?
-- Ian Gallimore

Right, the president’s popularity is not a function of his personality or performance or the events that take place during his time in office, but the direction of social mood. The two are not always in sync, however. There are times when presidential approval diverges dramatically from the trend in the social mood, as measured by the stock market. One key one that The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast has discussed as relevant to current trend is Lyndon Johnson’s approval rating in 1966-1968, which also tracked lower against a rising Dow. The May issue shows the similarity between the “Presidential Divergence” in 2006 and that of 1968 but notes that the current discrepancy “has been building for building for roughly twice as long. A longer social divergence equates to a bigger turn.” EWFF added, “The potential for social disruption is far more extreme than it was in 1969. This undoubtedly reflects the higher degree of the current trend change.”


A year ago, EWFF showed this chart of Bush’s approval rating against the Dow, and, after observing a “sea change” in the political arena, issued the forecast at the top of this post (for the full entry see Additional References below). We’ll have to see what happens on Election Day, but there is a good chance that the first evidence of the political revolution that we talked about here last year will make an appearance. Interestingly, one of the key figures that we discussed in that issue, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, has bounced off a low popularity floor of 37% approval. In a stunning reversal of fortune, Schwarzenegger’s approval rating has rebounded to 56%, and he is considered a shoe-in for re-election. “You rarely see in politics anybody come up from where the governor was,” says a pollster. What’s his secret? USA Today reported on October 13 that Schwarzenegger “surrounded himself with people who have encouraged him to wrap himself around the Democratic flag, and it has worked.”  Here’s the headline:
California Republican Regains Popularity as He Embraces Democrats

As much as they might like to, more established politicians cannot change their stripes like Schwarzenegger. So, there’s a good chance the upheaval anticipated in EWFF is ready to begin unfolding. It promises to produce some fascinating political theater.

At the state and local level, populist fervor is rising. In Pennsylvania, after the state legislature voted itself a “middle of the night pay raise” in July, a wave of outrage hit the newspapers and airwaves. Since a similar whiff of fury failed to amount to anything in 1995, few Pennsylvanians “predicted the level of hostility or how long it could simmer.” “The political establishment in Harrisburg underestimated the unifying power of outrage,” said the coordinator of a September 28 protest rally. In California, politicians are scratching their heads over the emergence of “grumpy voters. As they look around them and toward the future, residents of the Golden State are turning gloomy. By a 2-to-1 margin, registered voters in California say the state’s economy is now in ‘bad times’ rather than good.” In a “stunning drop,” the approval rating of action hero turned California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is down to 31%. “The word I hear most from business people is ‘surprise’ that he has squandered so much of his political capital and their money,” said a Republican political consultant. This is nothing. Probably by the Congressional election in 2006 and certainly by the Presidential election in 2008, the electorate’s seething desire to “throw the bums out” will completely reshape the political landscape.