No doubt about it, popular culture drives financial and political markets. But history does repeat itself and popular culture has an eerie way of foretelling the future. Consider this scenario.
In 1972 Republican Richard Nixon had been re-elected, defeating George McGovern in a landslide victory. Word was that Nixon and Kissinger had a “plan” to end the Viet Nam War and the economy was in great shape. The Dow Jones Average had just re-visited 1,000 since its first trip there in the late 1960s. Gee were the pundits wrong on all counts? The press thought they had dispatched Nixon forever. He lost to John Kennedy in the presidential race of 1960 and then suffered defeat running for Governor of California after that. Yet after the disastrous Chicago Democratic convention of 1968, he came back a winner.
Plotting to be rid of him again, the press seized on a “third rate burglary” of Democrat headquarters at the Watergate building. It worked and Nixon resigned amid an avalanche of daily bad press on conspiracies and cover-ups. Congress lost its taste for Viet Nam as our embassy crew left dangling from helicopters. The Dow Jones reacted by tanking from 1,000 in January of 1972 to 577 by December 1974. Interest rates began to soar, wage and price controls were imposed, OPEC embargoed oil, gasoline lines became a reality, and gold prices began to soar. Had we examined popular culture, we might have seen all that coming.
1970 brought us the first inkling of what would become known as the 'Disaster Movie,' and later the disaster decade. Yep Airport featured a group of folks thrown together on an airline struck by a bomber out to claim life insurance purchased for the trip. But what really kicked off the Disaster Movie Genre was The Poseidon Adventure [which came out in December 1972, a few weeks before the Dow’s final highs]. Billed as 'the world turned upside down' the move chronicled the efforts of cruise ship passengers to extricate themselves from a ship turned upside down by a rogue wave. Smaltzy, full of clichés, and featuring old (Shelley Winter, Red Buttons) and new (Gene Hackman, Carol Lynley) actors, it set the stage for a whole series of disaster flicks. The point is that the fascination with normal folks thrown into an abnormal situation foretold the disasters that were about to befall the economy. Once the DOW started crashing, the mood really turned negative. 1973 brought us the now classic horror film The Exorcist which portrayed an innocent girl possessed by Satan. However a priest exorcised the devil from the girl which was more than three Presidents could do with the 1970s economy. Gerald Ford presided over our loss in Viet Nam, a hopeless WIN program (Whip Inflation Now which sold a lot of buttons but did nothing on the inflation front), pardoned Nixon, and then lost to Jimmy Carter amid soaring gasoline prices.
Even the family could be portrayed as evil which is exactly what 1972's The Godfather did. Director Coppola shot enough film that he had two movies. In a rare Hollywood event, the sequel in 1974 was even better than the first, after all the economy was getting worse, not better, as we watched Michael Corleone have his brother killed. Even the biggest stars jumped on the money making disaster formula. So 1974 brought us then superstars Steve McQueen and Paul Newman in the utterly forgettable The Towering Inferno about the world's tallest building set ablaze. Even the earth was mad as Charleton Heston starred in 1974s Earthquake about a whole lot of shakin' going on in Los Angeles. Family murder, satanic possession, earthquakes, the world on fire, yep, that pretty well mirrored the country itself. Now consider the parallel.
George Bush has been elected president twice. The press can't stand him. Democrats simply oppose everything he tries to do. Gasoline and gold prices are soaring. Interest rates are going up. We are in a war with no apparent end in Iraq. Iran threatens nuclear war on Israel and anyone who tries to stop them. The DOW just re visited the last high it saw six years ago. Consumer confidence is high, unemployment low, and the economy is said to be just great. But approval ratings of both the President AND Congress keep dropping.
And sure enough, Posiedon (this time with B movie great Kurt Russell) has been re-made for a whole new audience. Gee, sure sounds like January of 1973 to me.
Dennis Elam lectures at Texas A & M Kingsville San Antonio campus and can be reached at de10@austin.rr.com. |
