Pete Kendall's Socio Times: A Socionomic Commentary

President Lula Has Survived a Corruption Scandal
Less than six months ago Brazil's President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, appeared down and out. Racked by a campaign funding scandal that enveloped his party, he was trailing in the polls and there would doubts he would even fight for re-election.

Now the man universally known as Lula appears to have bounced back and arrives in London today for a three-day state visit. He has lost 30lbs, foresworn alcohol and been politically reinvigorated by new numbers that show his approval rating has jumped to 53.3 per cent and suggest he could win re-election in October.

Mr. da Silva has also gone back on the attack and dropped the defensive tone he adopted at the peak of the scandal.

"The scandal has been passing and people have been focusing on what the government has actually been doing," Wanderley Guillherme dos Santos, a professor of politics at the Instituto Universitario de Pesquisas in Rio de Janeiro told The Independent. The greatest threat to him running for and winning a second term was the corruption scandal that undermined his party and was firmly cemented in the popular imagination by the arrest of a political aide as he left Sao Paulo airport and was found to have $100,000 worth of Brazilian reals stuffed into his underpants.

"The scare is beginning to pass," said Ricardo Guedes, the director of the Sensus Institute. "Voters are starting to focus instead on the government's achievements," he added.
The Independent, March 6, 2006

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President Lula: The Boy from Brazil Is Back
Category: POLITICS
By: Pete Kendall, March 7, 2006

The new high in the Bovespa, suggests strongly that the latest round of scandals will blow over.
Sociotimes, September 9, 2005

Click here to see the updated Socionomics in Action chart showing the bull market surge in social mood that is responsible for the comeback of  Brazil's leader. We stated back in September that the rise would "snuff out public agitation over the scandals," and that's exactly what happened. We added, however, that last year's scandals might be just a glimpse of coming attractions and that the mud slinging was likely to return once the Bovespa turns lower.  Based on the overextended look of the rise and the potential for a sharp reversal Lula should enjoy the good graces of the Brazilian electorate while he can. The Bovespa hit a new high yesterday, but the March issue of  EWFF's comments with respect to many foreign markets definitely applies to Brazil. If we're right, and these markets are reversing now, a new wave of vilification should be in Lula's future. The next election isn't until fall, Lula may end up wishing it was sooner.

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