Pete Kendall's Socio Times: A Socionomic Commentary

Yossi Zur, whose son was killed three years ago in a bombing, wants Israel to have as little as possible to do with Palestinians -- including sitting on opposite sides of a negotiating table. ``The only thing that will really work is clear and defined borders with a fence,'' he says.

Most Israelis share Zur's view, which explains why the Kadima Party is leading in polls for the March 28 election, even though it was formed less than four months ago and its founder, Ariel Sharon, 78, lies in a coma. Kadima's new leader, acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, said in newspaper interviews last week that he aims to set Israel's final borders by 2010 and ``completely separate'' from most
Palestinians. Meanwhile, he is pressing ahead with construction of a 410-mile barrier straddling Israel's border with the West Bank and avoiding renewed peace talks.

``There's a feeling that we have to get out of the West Bank,'' says Gadi Wolfsfield, a professor of political science at Hebrew University in Jerusalem. ``People thought we would get something in return, but now, voters are asking, `What's the point?' Let's just get out.''

Violence flared this week in the Gaza Strip, now under Palestinian rule, when the Israeli military raided a Jericho prison to capture five inmates arrested for the assassination of a minister. Two Palestinians were killed and four wounded, prompting a wave of kidnappings and arson attacks by members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
Bloomberg, March 17, 2006

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Sharon's Fence, West Bank Plan Carry Olmert Toward Election Win
By: Pete Kendall, March 17, 2006
At a peak, it's all 'we'; everyone is a potential friend. At a bottom it's all 'they'; everyone is a potential enemy. When times are good, tolerance is greater and boundaries weaker. When times are bad, intolerance for differences grows, and people build walls and fences to shut out those perceived to be different.
The Elliott Wave Theorist, September 1992

The significance of Mideast turmoil is covered in our January 27 entry and this month's issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. The dynamic is more fully explored in the additional references section of our July  19 entry. Scanning the long-term chart in that section, the current situation is most reminiscent of what happened after the end of Cycle III in the mid-1960s. The Six Days War of 1967 followed closely behind the start of the last bear market of at least Cycle degree. A second major confrontation, the Yom Kipper surprise attack of 1973, came right before the most serious phase of the same bear market. 

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