Additional References
The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2006
You Read It Here First, Over Two Years Ago
“A Democrat will be the next president. (I think it will be Hillary Clinton, currently not a candidate.)”
— EWT, October 2003
“The downhill course of this presidency will pave the way for the Democratic candidate (probably Hillary Clinton) to become president in 2008.” —EWT, November 2004
“The extension [of women’s emerging dominance] to the highest levels of society is evident in a full-color picture of Hillary Clinton in a recent issue of USA Today. She’s standing confidently in front of two GIs in a pose that all but declares the former first lady fit for the role of commander in chief. As ‘the first female presidential frontrunner in history,’ she’s already the most accomplished female candidate for the presidency in history. Clinton’s ability to secure the 2008 Democratic nomination remains an open question, but with ‘tough talk on defense’ and an array of ‘pro-military’ stances, Clinton has solidified her prospects. If the Republicans are smart they’ll push their own iron lady, Condoleezza Rice, to the front of the pack.” —EWFF, September 2005
Before Hillary was even a prospect for candidacy, and before politicians even took seriously the idea of a female president, EWT picked her to follow George Bush in the White House. This forecast was particularly bold given that no woman has ever been on top of the ticket in a presidential election. But the predictive value of socionomics is powerful and lends itself to expectations that are dramatically different from those of the crowd. I originally thought that the bear market would push Bush out and Hillary into office after just a single term, but the stock-market recovery of 2003-4 brought prices to a slight net gain for Bush’s first term, and he was re-elected. His experience since then has been less than happy. As stocks registered just an intermediate-term low last fall in the middle of a larger rally, Bush recorded the lowest popularity ratings of his presidency. The rebound in social mood since then has produced another stock rally and an uptick in his ratings. But wave patterns and sentiment indicators argue that this uptick is temporary.
Hillary is the strongest woman in U.S. politics, and she is the only one known only by one name, like Elvis, Marilyn and Cher. This week I saw my first “hillary” bumper sticker. Hillary’s profile should rise dramatically over coming months, and if the stock market does anything remotely as we expect between now and the election in 2008, she will be the next president.
EWFF, September 2005
The July issue cited a rise in the “feminine, caring” male role models and noted that the drift toward less stereotypically masculine fashions and lifestyles is a classic response to a bear market in social mood. When The Elliott Wave Theorist first identified this correlation in 1985, it also noted that a rise in “masculine,” “liberated” women is the flip side of this bear market trend. So far, it’s been a relatively quiet assault, but, in many areas, women have already moved beyond the in-roads created with the help of the women’s lib movement back in the 1970s. A highwater mark for female athletes during the last bear market, for instance, was Billie Jean King’s exhibition tennis victory over Bobby Riggs. In 1973, as the biggest bear market since the Great Depression was getting underway, King defeated Riggs in the famous “Battle of the Sexes.” Women are challenging men on their own turf, once again. But this time it’s not an exhibition. “Female athletes—from golf’s Michelle Wie and Annika Sorenstam and auto racing’s Danica Patrick to bowling’s Liz Johnson and minor-league hockey’s Angela Ruggiero—are taking on the men and receiving their greatest receptions.” With a fourth-place finish in the Indy 500 and a subsequent spot on Sports Illustrated’s cover, Danica Patrick replaced Janet Guthrie, the first female Indy car driver (also during the last Cycle-degree bear market of the 1970s), as the most accomplished female car racer in history. A USA Today headline reveals that 15-year old golfer Michelle Wie is “No Sideshow But A Real Threat to Gender Line.”
It’s not just the playing fields, as Bob notes in Prechter’s Perspective, but “In every field, women gain dominance in bear market periods.” The extension to the highest levels of society is evident in a full color picture of Hillary Clinton in a recent issue of USA Today. She’s standing confidently in front of two GIs in a pose that all but declares the former first lady fit for the role of commander in chief. As “the first female presidential frontrunner in history” she’s already the most accomplished female candidate for the presidency in history. Clinton’s ability to secure the 2008 Democratic nomination remains an open question, but with “tough talk on defense” and an array of “pro-military” stances, Clinton has solidified her prospects. If the Republicans are smart they’ll push their own iron lady, Condoleezza Rice, to the front of the pack.
|
