WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.
A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says a large outbreak that began in Asia would be likely, because of modern travel patterns, to reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."
If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed, riots would engulf vaccination clinics, and even power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan, which was obtained by The New York Times.
The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."
The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.
The New York Times, October 8, 2005
Economists Say Avian Flu Could Have Huge Impact
A worldwide pandemic of bird flu could shut down travel, disrupt supply chains, overwhelm health care systems and devestate economies globally, say some economists and health researchers. "Those economists that have looked at this have likened it to a catastrophic depression." .."We could well go into utter chaos worldwide for over a year." ..."Its impact could be comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s."
USA Today, October 10, 2005 |
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Bush Plan Shows U.S. Is Not Ready for Deadly Flu
By: Pete Kendall, October 10, 2005 |
On October 8, CNBC devoted what seemed like several whole hours of air time to the potential for a pandemic. This enfatuaion with people's worst fear is a far cry from its focus on the Internet in 2000 and, more recently, real esate. EWI's forecast for the bear market calls for just such an outbreak, but the recent media blitz, in the absence of a single reported case of person-to-person avian flu transference, points out that it may not even take an actual pandemic to disrupt things. In a bear market, society is predisposed to conjecture and paralyzing fear. Then there is the influence of various human solutions, which tend to compound instead of alleviate the initial effects of a declining social mood. This government study points to an emerging example as the Times notes, "Hospitals would become overwhelmed, riots would engulf vaccination clinics, and even power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan." That's "the plan?" Yes, it's just a description of the potential, but with the worries over a rapidly spreading contagion spreading fast, it can only compound the effect by undermining public confidence -- which is the most precious commodity of all in a bear market.
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