Additional References
The Next Flu Pandemic
In 1918, a strain of influenza different from any that had been seen before emerged among soldiers stationed in Haskell, Kan. By the end of 1919, more than one out of four people on the planet had fallen ill. Scientists are afraid it's about to happen again.
In the last two years, a new strain of influenza has spread through birds in Asia, killing more than 50 people. Public health officials say the bird flu could give rise to the next pandemic.
The number of human cases has increased sharply since late 2003, with more than 100 cases -- including more than 50 fatalities -- reported in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Last month, scientists found H5N1 in birds in Russia.
The Miami Herald, September 20, 2005
EWFF, December 2004
A Buy Signal For Flu Shots
Disease is another area where the bear market is picking up right where it left off in the first half of 2003. As global markets hit bottom in March 2003 EWFF remarked:
Bear markets are breeding grounds for disease, and, as the SARS epidemic illustrates, the fear that surrounds them can be even more debilitating than the disease itself. The latest word is that SARS has peaked. If so, it is probably just the end of a small-degree first wave, or perhaps some new more deadly virus will emerge. In any case, the mood of exclusionism, xenophobia and economic turmoil that swirled around the outbreak will not be eradicated any time soon and is likely to intensify.
Credible forecasts of another influenza pandemic have been pouring out in recent days. On November 25, the World Health Organization warned that a new strain of bird flu could kill up to seven million. “There is no doubt there will be a pandemic,” said a WHO spokesman. The flu will extend to all countries and affect 25 to 30% of the global population.
EWFF, May 2003
SARS is [a] bearish development that harkens back to the depths of the 1300s. The outbreak fulfills the following succinct forecast from At The Crest: “An epidemic will erupt.” The basis for the forecast was our knowledge of the plague’s impact during the Millennium-degree bear market in 1300, as well as the Spanish influenza of 1918-1919, which killed more than 20 million at the end of a long bear market, and epidemics of diptheria, polio and foot-and-mouth disease during the 1930s. Bear markets are breeding grounds for disease, and, as the SARS epidemic illustrates, the fear that surrounds them can be even more debilitating than the disease itself. The latest word is that SARS has peaked. If so, it is probably just the end of a small-degree first wave, or perhaps some new more deadly virus will emerge. In any case, the mood of exclusionism, xenophobia and economic turmoil that swirled around the outbreak will not be eradicated any time soon and is likely to intensify.
EWFF, September, 2002
The fear that was missing on the Dow’s ascent is very much in vogue now. As the Dow makes its way back toward 8000, major articles have chronicled a rise in anxiety due to dirty bombs, fast food, airplane travel, the U.S. mail and diseases ranging from the West Nile virus to “chronic wasting disease.” Fears over the latter illness led to the slaughter of 25,000 deer in Wisconsin. An August 8 USA Today article notes that the “Fear Industry Booms as Uneasy Citizens Seek Safety.” Another article reports that the latex glove industry has become a $3 billion industry thanks to fears about terrorism, anthrax, AIDS, E. coli and sanitation.
EWFF, April 2001
In [a] clear sign of a darkened public mood, Monday night’s Academy Awards show earned its lowest rating in history. At the spring fashion shows in Paris, the offerings were “almost entirely black.” The mood was so bleak, in fact, that a NY Times review warned, “Black Mood in Paris: Watch Out for Bad Times.” These fashions are the results of the downturn in social mood, not a harbinger. But don’t expect the dark fashions, disease scares and total disinterest in traditional Hollywood starlets to be as fleeting as the bearish cultural manifestations of the early 1990s. Whatever form the bear market ultimately takes is likely to shape the social scene for years to come.
At the Crest of the Tidal Wave
For whatever reason (perhaps because of society’s negative emotional state and, as a result, people’s weakened physical state), communicable disease sometimes plays a prominent role in major corrective periods, with some Cycle and Supercycle degree corrections containing epidemics and larger ones pandemics. With war and epidemics possible, the coming crisis will almost certainly pertain not only to property, but to survival. Be sure to stay vigilant. There will be more physical danger in the next fifty-plus years than there was in the last fifty. The most dangerous time socially and politically will be during and for a few years after wave (C), whenever it occurs. One thing is for certain: Several years from now, following the market and watching financial television for the latest stock tip will have become less relevant to the average person’s life. The next 10% move in the Dow will be far less important to most people, as their minds will be on other things.
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