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Pete Kendall's Socio Times: A Socionomic Commentary
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By CHRISTOPHER BYRON
We've encountered Above-The-Law Martha dismissing the insider-trading allegations swirling about her as "ridiculousness," and the felony crimes for which she was thereafter convicted as a "small personal matter."

In last week's latest update on all this we find Queen Martha still hovering above the law — only this time having just been caught apparently violating the terms of her home-confinement for the earlier offenses. And, of course, in that wrist-flicking manner she has also perfected, we likewise find her dismissing and waving away the entire affair by "agreeing," through her lawyers, to spend three more weeks rattling around her 40-room prison cell in Bedford, N.Y. , with that LoJack thing clamped to her ankle.

But there is pathos here too, for Martha Stewart isn't simply engaged in a performance she can switch on and off at will. In reality, she is reading lines that are imprinted in her DNA. For the first 30 years of her career in the public eye, she kept that side of her under wraps, and we saw only the character of Martha Stewart . For the last three, we've seen the real person behind the mask.

DRENCHED as they have been in exaggeration and hyperbole, the press releases rolling forth from [Martha Stewart's firm, Martha Stewart Omnimedia] echo a level of preposterous optimism not heard in these parts since the late governor of New York, Nelson Rockefeller, said it would not be necessary to spend any more money on improving the decrepit Long Island Rail Road since it was already "the best commuter line in America."

Thus we learn that "the brand is really stronger than ever," suggesting, it would appear, that the conviction and incarceration of the company chairman and founder as a federal felon has actually been a net positive for the brand, even though revenues have collapsed by 42 percent in the process and operating cash flow has plunged into the red.

You can find plenty more of this sort of desperate optimism in the company's latest numbers.

Thus do the lost lessons of life now hold the Queen in their thrall, strapping her in for one last ride, at the age of 64, into the forest of no return, where Contrary Mary's garden of cockle shells is all make-believe, and the only reality is the end that comes past the roadside sign that the audience sees and the Queen does not . . . the one that reads, Danger, Breakdown Dead Ahead.
New York Post, August 18, 2005


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BORROWED TIME [For Martha Stewart]
By: Pete Kendall, August 8, 2005

Newsweek says Stewart will emerge from prison "thinner, wealthier and ready for prime time," but the early celebration over her "recovery" is a sure sign that the countertrend rally is ending. Stewart will find her return to the business world a lot less accommodating than her jail cell.
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, March 2005

Interesting, character assassination/forecast from Byron of the NY Post. Why now? Because as EWFF said with respect to many cultural phenomenon over the course of the great Grand Supercycle downturn in stock prices, it’s time.  Bull market heroes get torn down in bear markets.  Or, in the case of an extremely long-term peak, they get brought down, reclaimed and trashed again.
Additional References

EWFF, October 2002
The bear market has guided Martha Stewart’s image with the same precision as the bull. In September, the now “tarnished queen of perfection” beat the NASDAQ to a new low when she refused to testify before Congress about insider trading charges and had her case forwarded to the Justice Department. “Everything negative that could happen has happened,” said the author of a Stewart biography. “A curtain has been drawn back in a way that is causing her excruciating and irreparable damage.”

But the curtain to “everything negative” has nothing to do with Martha Stewart. This is clear from the alleged offense, which would not even have been prosecuted in the bull market, and the fact that corporate executives everywhere face similar attacks. The more fully that they leveraged the benevolent effects of a rising social mood, the more likely it is that they now face the slings and arrows of angry shareholders, politicians and community activists.

EWFF, July 2002
From Bad to Worse
This week’s Time magazine cover focuses on the end of the world while Newsweek digs into the Martha Stewart insider trading debacle with a front-page story on “Martha’s Mess.” According to yesterday’s Washington Post, “The exploding scope and volume of these still-unfolding corporate and accounting scandals have begun to weigh heavily on the stock market.” Subscribers know the truth, a declining social mood, as reflected by the stock market, has produced attacks on the leaders, companies and social units that were the focus of the advance. These are the results of the trend change that were forecast in past issues. Their scope is indicative of the degree of the decline.

“Focus on My Salad”
Newsweek says Martha Stewart is not going to jail, and it offers no evidence of impropriety. Still, there she is on the front-page as the tarnished “queen of perfection” because Martha Stewart embodies the descending mood. She reflects the public’s vulnerability and anger with such perfection that television stations across America had to show the image of her chopping salad, laughing nervously and declaring that she “will be exonerated of any ridiculousness.” In March, EWFF anticipated the intensifying glare of the bear market mood with this comment: “The next, more personal phase of this process will focus on the individuals that benefited the most from the rising mood.” As the stock market approached its final highs, no one was a more direct beneficiary than Martha Stewart. Her persona was so entwined in the rising mood that she took it public. In October 1999, when her market capitalization rose to $1.7 billion on sales of just $14 million, EWFF said overvaluation had risen to the “level of a social virtue.” Over the next five months, Martha Stewart shares fell almost 74% and hinted at a whole new social order. But no one noticed until recent weeks because that is when the new more destructive order was in place. Now CNBC and the scandal sheets track her decline tick for tick.

EWFF, November 1999
In another late-breaking milestone, Martha Stewart “struck stock market gold” October 19 with the sale of 14% of her firm to the public. Stewart’s first book, Entertaining, came out in 1982 as the bull market was taking off. Since then, she has become “the queen of gracious living,” a self-made billionaire “credited with creating a lifestyle industry.” She is not the first bull-market hero to equitize her persona (the World Wrestling Federation even went public on the same day), but she may be the most fully valued. The Martha Stewart company has a capitalization of $1.7 billion and earnings of $14 million, which makes her an excellent “role model” according to one consultant, who added, “we need them because it gives women hope and desire to strive.” Overvaluation is now a social virtue.

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