« Previous | Main Page | Next »

Well, the left and right almost came together over a new, more restrictive immigration law that would have been the most far reaching reform since the Immigration and Reform Act of 1965 went into effect. But now that the peak is in place, or nearly so, they can’t even do that. Suddenly, there’s no room for compromise. Just the use of the word “amnesty” to describe relatively strict conditions under which illegals would be allowed to stay was enough to harden the hearts of 15% of respondents to one poll. The public is not in the mood to let bygones be bygones. The 1965 measure, which came right before the February 1966 peak of Cycle III, ultimately opened the U.S. borders to millions. The latest bill would have let many illegals stay, but it would also have reduced the number of aliens entering the country. The bill’s failure exposes a divided populace that is developing a ravenous appetite for restriction and control. The only question, at this point, is just how restrictive it wants to be.

The underlying driver is the exclusionism that rules through every bear market. It’s still more of a local story, but it is starkly apparent in communities where Hispanics make up a large portion of the population. Sometimes it shows itself in subtle ways. Here in Gainesville, Georgia, for instance, it recently unfurled itself on a long line of flag poles in the front of the local high school. Initially, the school used the display to recognize its “international diversity” with a United Nations style succession of foreign flags. When a complaints ensued, however, the flags were quickly replaced with a few state and local flags, plus an uninterrupted line of more than 30 flapping American flags .

The mounting tension is becoming a lot less subtle in other places. Residents of nearby Dalton, Ga., for instance, face “a major crisis” due to hostility between blacks and Hispanics. The latest flare up occurred when a black teenager was allegedly gunned down by a Latino gang. “Now the community is saying enough is enough. ‘No matter our racial, ethnic, and personal differences, we are one people, and we are determined to stay that way,’ said Dalton’s City Administrator.  In a waxing negative social mood, which The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior says features “increased exclusionary tendencies in every aspect of society,” this gets harder and harder.

A rupturing effort to hold things together is readily apparent in Los Angeles, where a battle for political control of some areas is approaching open warfare. One ke battle is the June 26 special election to fill the unexpired term of the late Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald. The seat has traditionally been held by a black Congressman or woman, but a prominent Latino, state Sen. Jenny Oropeza, is making a strong bid. “Ethnic Tensions Underlie House Race,” says the Sacramento Bee. “Tension over jobs and housing has increased in the district that includes Compton, Carson, much of Long Beach and parts of South Los Angeles.” “The problem is emblematic of emerging tensions throughout Los Angeles County,” adds the L.A. Times. The only remnant of the old bull market's inclusionary is offered by a USC professor who says, “Each group is buying off on the negative stereotypes held by the majority [white culture], rather than questioning them. Blacks say that Latinos don't take care of their housing, and Latinos felt that blacks don't value families as much.” At this point, the common ground is seen as the animosity various sides hold toward one another.

February 2006, EWFF
Putting the Il back in Illegal Aliens
Another manifestation of a bear market is the attitude toward immigration. First, recall what The Elliott Wave Theorist said on the subject in October 2003: “The U.S. will increase restrictions on immigration.” Last month, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the “toughest immigration legislation in more than a decade.” The bill includes “provisions that once seemed unthinkable to many lawmakers, like the construction of five fences across 698 miles of the United States border with Mexico.” As EWT has noted, in bear markets, “people build walls and fences to shut out those perceived to be different.” Tom Tancredo, the Colorado Congressman behind the fence idea (he also wants to add one along the border with Canada), marvels at his sudden move into the mainstream. “I would have said to you a month ago or so, ‘Yeah, it’s definitely the case that I am a pariah.’ But it has changed. I’m respected. It leaves me speechless.” It was only last summer that Business Week’s cover story on “Embracing Illegals” stated that companies “are getting hooked on the buying power of 11 million undocumented immigrants.” “Let’s be real: the U.S. is not about to arrest and herd millions of men, women and children into boxcars for transport back across the Rio Grande,” said an editorial in the same issue. “That’s a nativist’s fantasy that will never come to pass.” But we caution such editorialists that in a major bear market, nativist and other fantasies of exclusion typically become stark reality. And the brunt of this bear market is still to come.