The Time Is Right For Street Fighting
We agree with the first part of that assessment. Live 8, the global rock concert/AIDS benefit, certainly reflected a positive social mood, but there are many reasons to suspect that it expressed the emotion of expansionary force that is in its final stages.
The Observer's over-the-top assessment of the event's prominence is the first clue. A more realistic appraisal of the crowd came from the Orange County Register. In a story headlined, "The Whole World Wasn't Watching," the Registser noted that the live audience was actually only a small fraction of the world's population.
On an emotional level, the article also notes that Live 8 was a hollow echo of Live Aid: "You couldn't escape Live Aid. It was on every TV and ran like a telethon; we tuned in and out depending on what was coming up, and got goosebumps because the momentum of the performances (good or bad) was never sidetracked and surprises weren't revealed before they came. We were a part of something, and palpably felt the goodwill building. Saturday, I just felt fractured – elated one moment by an incredible performance, disappointed moments later at the realization that it had been shared with virtually no one." Fractured feelings are consistent with a bear market not a bull.
On stage, the performances mirrored the fading vitality of the bull market which managed a very narrow new high in June when the Value Line Composite reached its all-time peak unaccompanied by any other major average. With hits like the inclusionary anthem, "We Are the World," Live Aid was a unifying social force. This time, Michael Jackson, the driving force behind that effort and the musical hero of Cycle V, was back in California beating a rap for child molestation. But plenty of other past-their-prime rockers showed up. In fact, the show was dominated by oldies. Instead of expressing an new surge in energy, headliners, Bono, Madonna, Mick Jagger, Bob Dylan and Paul McCartney expressed an inextricably link to a creaky old bull.
One of the biggest reasons to expect that the concert reflects a conclusion rather than a return to new highs is the protests that accompanied Live 8. The "8" in the title refers to the G8 conference that is being held a few days later in Scotland. This time, one writer notes, the rock and rollers are "demanding a real change in the world." "What started 20 years ago is coming to a political point," said concert organizer Bob Geldof. Protest and social activism are common in the transition phase from a bull to a bear market in social mood, precisely where the latest issue of EWFF places the current position of social mood. Back in 1985, Live Aid was more of a party that also raised money for starving people in Africa. Whereas the Live 8 was followed by images of a sometimes violent demonstrations at the G8 meeting in Scotland, Live Aid's legacy was a hit song in which Mick Jagger and David Bowie sang "The Time is Right for Dancing in the Streets." The quote above offers The Elliott Wave Theorist's interpretation back in 1985. As the accompanying chart shows, Jagger certainly was referring to Wall Street as the Dow Jones Industrials went above 1300 in September 1985 as the Jagger/Bowie's version of "Dancing" soared to No. 7 on the pop charts. The Dow never looked back.
When Geldof was asked to do a sequel to Live Aid earlier this year, he resisted saying, "No one would get excited about David Bowie and Mick Jagger doing 'Dancing in the Street' together on stage anymore." In time, he acquisced because the format called for world leaders to be directly confronted. "There's more than a chance that the boys and girls with guitars will finally get to turn the world on its axis." Of course, that's nothing new. The boys and girls with guitars are always on hand at the big turns. But you have to listen carefully to know which way the world is turning. How the bands play, what they say and their demeanor all reflect the outcome. The message of Live 8 is the exact opposite of Live Aid. |
